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HomeMy WebLinkAbout2026 Board of Realtors Housing PresentationWELCOME Legislative Luncheon April 10, 2026 171 62 b WELCOME REMARKS 11 A5 - 11:50 AM Bethany Huey, 2026 IBR President GUEST COMMENTS 12:OOPM Ron Garafalo, NYSAR President 12:00-12:05 Senator Webb 12:05-12:10 ROOM TEMPERATURE 12:15 - 12:30PM TODAY'S LOCAL REAL ESTATE MARKET Brent Katzmann, Government Affairs 12:30 - 1:10 PM Guest Comments Congressman Josh Riley 1:15-1:30PM WRAP-UP & ADJOURNMENT 1:30 PM 4#r qEOE'O[ I!AdV uoaqDun� OAlleIS150� Ja>1aI?W a}e}s3 Ieaa le:)ol s,Aepol Slido Questions: 1. Overall, do you feel like our housing situation is heading in a positive or negative direction? 2.Where do you see the largest gap in our local housing market? 3.Do you feel like affordability is improving or declining in our local housing market? I : , IP nysar New Ywk State Association of REALTORS•, Inc. OWNER HOUSING MARKET HEADLINE FOR 2025: "We remain in an affordability crisis." 1. Even with inventory increasing by 19%, home prices continued to climb aggressively. 2. Increased availability coupled with interest rate declines seemed to spur more buyers to return to the market. 3. Homeownership affordability locally fell by 8%. 4. Workforce housing continued to lose ground. P. IBR !'�+Scar TFIACA Oy OF RF.A lTOPS RS Nero 1W 11z[.=,4;;rc a I, J;lF 111 OPS I,. RENTAL MARKET HEADLINE FOR 2025: "Unit saturation, regulations and expenses are negatively impacting the market." 1. Rental units continue to be added, primarily student/high end housing and income -qualified 2. GCE impacts and a weakening rental market are causing landlords to consider selling or leaving units vacant. 3. 2-4 Unit Residential sales declined in 2025 after growing in 2024 4. Rental rates may have found their ceiling as many local landlords are lowering rents reflecting growing vacancies. r.. rIB-R'!'*�lySr uaRo ORa 14-1W'11J. ,4;;rc ttl,'.J;kFAll PI I,. The Owner -Occupied and For Sale Housing Market ,Ttiaca eoaao �•� IBR Clysa OF RERLSORS New York Rate Amodation of REALTORS', Inc. 2025 brought a slight rebound in the number of single family homes being sold in Tompkins County, up 8.7% to 633 closed sales, though still well below historic averages. Total Unit Sales - Residential, Tompkins County - no lakefront 870 857 820 789 721 751 754 710 738 739 707 7.rir7 677 .. _ 696 500 250 0 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 Total Sales - Residential, Tompkins County - no lakefront �Bu ;,nysar Listing activity for 1,300 single family residential 975 reversed a 5 year decline, adding 650 19% more listings in 2025 than the 325 prior year. 0 Number of New Listings 2015 2017 2013 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 Source: Ithaca Board of REALTORS@ MLS; year ended 12/31; single famil /condo/townhome; Tompkins County; excluding lakefront rlySdr $n0,000.00 $285.000.00 7.� $190,000.00 $95,000.00 Median Sales Price 340,000 4 $0.D0 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 Year Source: Ithaca Board of REALTORS@ MLS; year ended 12/31; single family/condo/town home; Tompkins County; excluding lakefront Even with increased availability, Tompkins County Median Sales Price jumped 10.9% in 2025 to $377,000. r1] sar $440,000.00 $330,000.001 $220,000.00 $11 p,DR0.0a $D.DD t`,, Sale Price, Average 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 Source: Ithaca Board of REALTORS@ MLS; year ended 12/31; single family/condo/townhome; Tompkins County; excluding lakefront While Average Sales Price jumped 12.6% in 2025 to nearly $4259000. 11 awa nysar The market remained competitive with most homes selling near list price. 100% 98.5% DUN 95.5% 94% 0 Close Price to Original Price Ratio 2016 2017 2019 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 Source: Ithaca Board of REALTORS@ MLS; year ended 12/31; single family/condo/townhome; Tompkins County; excluding lakefront IBt ;; 111]IScr 2025 Market Average: $434,285 Cayuga Height,, Lannin,, Northeast BJM Belle Sherman Caroline South Hill Enfield Fall Greek Trumansburg Dry cl,-r, Newfield Groton Every school district in TC experienced increases in sales price except Newfield. Increases in Lansing, Caroline and Dryden were most pronounced at 33%, 27% and 26% respectively. Bi iA1 nysar Sales activity increases occurred in homes above $300,000. Activity declines Activity increases 100 95 7 $9 88 75 74 72 73 69 � �� 66 I� 59 1 58 50 4o 48 44 43 37 33 26 24 26 25 2a 2a 23 �16 9 1� g 9 OR 6 -� 5 p - - - I $0 - 100 $150 - 200 $250 - 300 $350 - 400 $450 - 500 $600 - 700 $800 - 900 $1,000,00 2024 2025 F� •; nysar Cash continues to represent over 1/3 of all sales, while Gov't -backed financing is almost non-existent. How Buyers Fund Home Purchase - Source of Funds (All MLS) 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 1 0% 0% Case Conven. Fin. 3% Gov't Mort. Source: Ithaca Board of REALTORS,& MLS; year ended 12/31; single family/condo/townhome; Tompkins County; excluding lakefront BR ,'; nySar Mortgage rates declined steadily in 2025 helping generate more buyer activity but are currently showing signs of reversal. 6.75%. 6.5m 6.25% d.00% 5.75% 5.5" 5.25%. 3Y 5Y 10Y All 03119j2025 - 03/19/2026 f 4�; 30Y FRM: 6.22% r 1' 15Y FRM: 5,54% Apr 14 May 12 Jun 9 Jul 7 Aug 4 Sep 1 Sep 29 Oc! 27 Nov 24 Dec 22 Week ending Thumdiy, Mir 19, 2426� 1970 1980 1990 2000 — 3DYFRM — HSYFRM Recessions Source: FreddieMac; as of 3/19/26 2010 202D IM These trends are similar in the surrounding counties, and statewide. Wit,,; nysar Schuyler Seneca Chemung Cayuga C,a 0 2425 M 2024 ■ 2W3 ■ 20M 0 2C2' 0 300 60U 900 Listing activity growth was similar in 4 of 5 adjoining counties ranging from 3.9 to 16.6% increases in listing volume. .. . 1200 IM iA1 n ear 3 of 5 neighboring counties also experienced continued value growth ranging from 4.2 - 8.3% with a collective avg sales price of $218,000. $270,000.00 $202,500.00 $135.000.00 $67,500.00 $n_on 2021 2022 )A 2023 2024 2025 Title $264,639 Gotland Cayuga Chemung Seneca Schuyler r. �Bu .. nysar These trends are statewide and point to a continuing gap in housing affordability that began at the onset of the pandemic. YB •w, nysar 2025 Annual Report on the New York State Market Price Range Review $150,001 to $250,000 Price Range with Shortest Average Days on Market Until Sale Days on Market Until Sale by Price Range $700,001 and Above Price Range with Longest Average Days on Market Until Sale $150,000 and Below 54 $150.001 to $250,000 40 $250,001 to $350,000 40 $350.001 to $450.000 � 45 $450,001 to $550,000 49 $550.001 to $700.000 51 $700,001 and Above $700,001 and Above Price Range with the Most Closed Sales 58 + 11.9% Price Range with Strongest One -Year Change in Sales: $700,001 and Above nysar 10.0% - 12.8% of Humes far Safs 0—Year change al Year EM Prised in Moines for Safe Pricer $150,000 and Elelnw $150,000 and aeluw Share of Homes for Sale $150,OW and Below I" 12% 1e% 8% 6% 4% 2% 6% 1-2021 1-20?< 1-2021 1-2024 1 2SL: $450,001 to - 14. 7 % $550,000 PrcQ Range with the Price Range with Weakest Fewest Closed Sales Line -Year Change in Sales: $150,000 and Below Statewide, Housing Affordability Index t'; n y s a r affordability This ,qs ne e5sary is _ . 5 t. ate meansA Ng the median household mcana ua 120%b of what as necessary to qua y ror me rt)etllan-priced hertro uncle• prew:aling �n[erest rates. A hgher number means greater sffadabrliTy. declined by Dimmiliff Year to Date ANorde6Wty Index Prior VOW PwountChange Jaanuary 2025 93 98 - 5..1 % February 2025 92 102 - 9.8% 1 another 2.1 % ,� '°� March 25 April 2025 94 93 92 92 -1.1% + 1.1 % May 2025 90 91 - 1.1 % June 2025 89 + % with median July 2025 87 91 9 - 4A.4% August 2025 88 93 -5.4% September 2025 9 4A% household October 21125 97 97 97 0.0% November 2025 98 97 + 1 .0% income be I o w - Y.8% - 9.6% -1.1'% - T.0% • 67% 2023 2025 2023 2024 • 1.1 % December 2025 2025 93 94 _ _ - 1.1 % 2 1 fib what is Historical Housing Affordability Index by Month �0. needed to buy a median FIIG \tvv- 150 priced home. 5o IBR*w* n ar 1-2012 1-2013 1-2314 ms 1-2016 1-2017 1-2019 1-2019 1-Y020 1-2021 1-2022 1-2325 1-2024 1-2025 A x�« rvn su�eumnGon a, Gx. Gumm u of Ja+�.sy 10. 2bt6. NI Yak, Mpat 02a28 Srayn9iYnn W+, LLC I fp In the local market, affordability declined by 8% from the prior year with median household income well below what is needed to buy a median priced home. Housing Affordability Index 11BRW*�qi t v: , - j. +imeans th 0 e media n housellmW rrrcarq Is 120% at :�� • ysar :N to 4uW6 for th. priced home under prevalllna lndeaast rates A Hgher number nneens greater affordablNty. December Year to Date '°'ft dmbft PrkDrxaw PamdCllertge January 2025 102 118 - 13.6% 109 February 2025 96 109 - 11.9% 1'� March 2025 103 115 - 10.4% 110 95 96 95 Apnl 2025 101 96 ♦ 5.2% May 2025 74 85 - 12.9% June 2025 85 77 . 10.4% July 2025 78 89 • 12.4% August 2025 61 97 - 16.5% September 2025 84 100 • 22.2% October 2025 100 98 + 2.0% November 2025 104 103 a 1.0% a3% - 02% t00% ; r. 1 LON ,.a-, Dove r Ms 99 110 - 1019% 21325 't24 2028 :123 2024 2025 Historical Housing Affordability Index by Month W 150 100 50 1-2007 1-2008 1-2009 1 21310 1-2011 1-2012 1-2013 1-2014 1-2015 1-2016 1-2017 1-2019 1-2019 1-2020 1-2021 1-2022 1-2023. 1-2024 1-2025 oUr AMA a\\ow prat doe5 er°rd? ��ggideespo afifio rouseho 1� `oi w¢ugaRs vj� at TAPS. tic. Naw `tak 5cece At current median sales price, estimated payment with 5% down is just under $3200 per month. Home price Payment breakdown Amortization $370,000 Down payment $18,500 Loan term 30 years Interest rate 6.22 ZIP code 14850 1 Monthly payment breakdown Advertiser Disclosure Based on your inputted interest rate $3,182 Imo Compare to top offers on Bankrate O ® Principal & interest $2,157.39 Property tax + $ 925 Homeowner's insurance + I $ 100 Additional filters - 30 year fixed rate @ 6.22% with 5% down payment; Source: Bankrate I4R ny,sar L As we see HH sizes dropping, median HH income limits purchasing power to $200,000. Home price $ 200, 000 Down payment $10,000 Loan term 30 years Interest rate 6.22 ZIP code 14850 5 % Payment breakdown Amortization Monthly payment breakdown Based on your inputted interest rate Principal & interest Property tax Compare to tap offers on Bankrate O 1* Homeowner's insurance $1,166.16 +I $ 500 Additional filters - 2024 MHI of $71,945; 30 year fixed rate C 6.22% with 5% down payment; 11BR W� * ys ar Sources: US Census American Community Survey, Tompkins County; Bankrate�..W,.Kti,00 Median family income in TC should allow for purchases up to $300,000. Home price Payment breakdown Amortization $ 300,000 Down payment $15,000 Loan term 30 years Interest rate 6.22 ZIP code 14850 a Monthly payment breakdown "dverlise`Discbsure Based on your inputted Interest rate $2,599 /mo Compare to tap offers on Bankrate 0 ® Principal & interest $1,749.24 Property tax + I $ 750 0 Homeowner's insurance +I $ 100 Additional filters u e 2024 MR: $111,800;30 year fixed rate C@ 6.22% with 5% down payment; n,ysar Sources: US Census American Community Survey, Tompkins County; Bankrate�..,�,m.a�,. A Quick Look at Multi -Family and Commercial W ;�* nysar Commercial & .multi -Emit Tompkins County Service Data :.,.�,,�r:,, : ,M:,�1< �: ::„rrKs+�a„N�,.�r,xr..�,rr„��r,,,wrr,-,,,,., ., •:.. .: . How Many Commercial Properties Sell on the MLS: 2013 2014 2015 2010 2017 201& 2019 2020 2021 I 2022 2023 2024 2025 0 MIS Commercial Sales Dara 2025 Average Days on Marke� Average Sale Price: $611.327 Common Commercial Practice Areas; • Ik-rr6r, rnrcr an, • Cry nim • l�nIT) nrrr;.1 Ltnd • t':nnw��n_i.lv'IP,�suieorial • ����n,nreriixJlndusrrial • lun. .iud &'s. f3's • f:u • �1��1,�1:� I Inmr Narks • hl:rnua1rn,nng • I:r,i,�:: nin[s • Ii,-nril 5 In 13 20 25 30 35 How Many MoIi-Units Sell on the MIS? 100 MIS Multi —Unit Safes 2025 so Average Days on Marker: 49 611 Average List to S atio: 95.604'o Number of Listings Sold: 75 Ail Average Selling, Price: $+I8.155 20 2024 2025 Commercial and Multi -family sales through the MLS softened very slightly in 2025, taking considerably longer to sell than residential homes. .. . _V.Sil YB' f ysar Tompkins County 2-4 unit multi -family listing activity continued to increase in 2025. 160 - The number of multi -family 140- units (2-4 dwellings) listed for 120- sale have increased the past 100- r two years following GCE and rapid new development 60- g rowth. 40- 20 - 0 IBR nysar ITHAfA BOARD OF REALTORS York State ASuxIA[ion at REAITQRS•, Ix. .4. 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 � Nun-bff of New Listings I Time frame is from ]an 2021 to Dec 2025 Property Type is "Multi -Family Res (2-4) units' County Or Parish is 'Tompkins' On Waterfront YN is no At the same, sales of 2-4 unit properties softened while values grew. vU The number of multi -family units (2-4 dwellings) that sold in 2025 declined slightly from 2024's jump to 71 total sales. Values increased an average of 7.4% to $397,291, continuing a 3 year trend. IB ��; IHACA k30ANU nysar Or RfALTORS New Y.rY. 5[z[e Assrc'W­ d 12E4liORS". 11•c. 81 ­ 67.5 45 22.5 0 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 $400,000.00 $367,378 00 $324,226-DO M $a00,000.DD $200,000.00 $100.000.00 $397,291.00 $369,98e.00 $00 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 Tompkins County 5+unit Multi -family sales remain well below prior years while values continued to fall. 12 The number of multi -family units (5+ dwellings) that sold in 10 2025 dropped from a high in s 2021 of 12 to just 5 units. c 6 J Values suffered a continued 4 decline of 5.8% to an average of $733,300, the fourth straight 2 value decline in Tompkins 0 County. 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 Sales. Number of j nys a r Sale Price. Average New'laR Sate As (Im ol0.E,lLrgRs Irvc $1.200.000 $800, 000 $600 000 S-1DO, 0M $200.00o so 2026 Apartment Vacancy state High... from overproduction Multifamily 'Vacancy RaW ., b b� b-b5v (1i'S 6'. 20T9 20M 2020 2020 M20 2020 202Y 2021 2021 2021 2022 202: 2022 2022 2023 M3 2023 2021 2024 20.24 202. 2024 2025 2025 2025 Q1 04 Q'1 02 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 02 03 04 Q1 Q2 Q1 Q4 Ql Q2 Q1 NATIONAL Source: NAR Analysis of CoStar data ASSOCIATION of LALTQRS' Private Sector Data: Apartment Pents Barely rising Multifamily Rent Growth 12 Mo 9.tx 1� 1<� t 19l 2 7,6 2,6% 2.7% 2.Ox � L7'16 1. iX 1,2% L 12% 1.3% 1.2% 1.2% 12% 12% 13K r` ON,�1 11019"'M ZQ" tax? 2029 2020 2020 2020 WM 2021 20" 2021 2022 3= 2022 2a22 "n "n W23 "" r024 2W4 20r16 2024 202a Ms rats 03 Q+ Q1 Q2 Q) 444 Q1 Qr Q3 QA Q1 02 Q) Q4 Q1 Q2 Q) Q* Q1 Q2 Q) Qa QI Q2 Q) NATIONAL Source: NAR analysis of Costar data ASSOCIATION SO o sON OF Local Landlord Survey Reflects Similar Trends 57% of surveyed landlords had to reduce rental rates to secure a tenant (avg reduction: 5-20%) 57% of surveyed landlords reported vacancies of 30 days or longer in 2025 Of those, vacancy rates were reported to be 5-20% on average 36% of respondents indicated having to offer incentives and concessions, beyond rent reductions to attract tenants (adding washing machines, utilities, parking, etc) Landlord Association of Tompkins County Survey; 3/31-4/5/2026; 42 respondents MBRA 9UAFDALTORS A': nysar New York Sm. Ass wlm of REACTORS`. Ins. Local Landlord Survey Feedback "The Ithaca rental market has become very difficult, favoring new big builders, and penalizing small housing providers. The costs for maintaining the property have skyrocketed, and it has become more of a liability." "Being a very small landlord is impossible here. The common council's decision to include owners of more than 1 unit in the good cause eviction regulation destroyed our chances of surviving a bad tenant. Tenants know they can get away with not paying and they know they get free legal representation when we have to pay a lot to get them evicted . It feels really scary here and because of it I'm getting out." "For the first time in 12 years I'm experiencing vacancies and real difficulty renting units, particularly 3-bedrooms and above. I've had to offer rent concessions and reduce asking rents just to get them filled. What makes this especially painful is that operating costs haven't followed suit. Taxes, insurance, flood insurance, and materials costs continue to increase annually — there's no balance.' "I feel the city has repeatedly harmed my ability to provide quality housing at a reasonable price and it continues to threaten to crack down further on small housing providers like me with new rent control regulations. ALL of this legislation seems to be designed to drive local mom & pop providers out while welcoming big business:" "Rentals have been weak, the worst in memory." , I BR ;; nysar THACA BOARD OF REALTORS Landlord Association of Tompkins County Survey; 3/31-4/5/2026; 42 respondentsN�York State A:�iati-nfREA`TORS,-Im. V) c n ro CL ro ro Ln ro ro 2000 Ql 2001 Q1 2002 Ql 2003 Q1 2004 Ql 2005 Ql 2006 Ql 2007 Q1 2008 Ql 2009 Ql 2010 Q1 2011 Ql 2012 Ql 2013 Ql 2014 Ql 2015 Ql 2016 Ql 2017 Ql 2018 Ql 2019 Q1 2020 Ql 2021 Ql 2022 Ql 2023 Ql 2024 Ql 2025 Ql 0 Ln 0 Ln g Ln 0 © © 0 0 a x rD 3 0 rots M 0 0 Mt E to Local Multi -family and Commercial Outcomes have not met expectations • Following the loss sale of Library Place last year, The Dean, which also received a tax abatement through a PILOT agreement from the IDA, is currently in foreclosure. • Cornell Business Park was foreclosed upon this past year. • Properties in the heart of Collegetown—including the Breazzano Family Center (acquired for approximately $30 million in November 2025) and 301 College Avenue (acquired for approximately $15 million) —were purchased by Cornell through foreclosure sales, removing them from tax rolls. • Asteri was recently forced to vacate all residents due to unsafe living conditions. The project received public funding for development, including CHDF support, IDA-approved tax abatements through a PILOT, sales tax and mortgage recording tax exemptions, as well as state -level funding through grants and low -interest financing. 1 .. IBA N, VAIV nysar fC BOARD OFF REALTQRS New Y rk SWAssocr d- & REALTORV. Inc. m i rpi m ,, s 0 Sign in q Independent Nonprofit Nonpartisan News About v Government v Economy v Public Safety v Education v Health v Culture v announcements v Support its v The Commons vacancy rate is high, foot traffic is dropping and storefronts appear'shabby,' study finds Of the 144 storefronts along the Commons, 23 are currently empty. A 16% vacancy rate, above the 10% threshold considered the healthy industry standard, according to the study. - Foot traffic on the Commons dropped by 12.5 % from 2018-2019 to 2024 -2025, including a 6.3% drop in the final year of the review. The Commons receives 3,850 pedestrians per day; As such, it cannot afford to lose its appeal among visitors, who "account for 54% of Downtown's foot traffic" About 71% rated the Commons retail mix as "poor," 43% as "fair" 28% considered it a good place to shop, while 74% of all respondents said they had not visited the Commons in at least a month, and 22% said they had visited just once. The study then connects the Commons with West State Street through the "serious concern" that "Public safety [...] has been in recent years." Noting that, particularly on West State Street, businesses "report persistent quality -of -life issues including visible homelessness, aggressive panhandling, substance use, and public sanitation concerns, with perceived inadequate municipal response" - Current tenant instability is high, with multiple lease non -renewals anticipated," the study said. Source: City-wide Retail Market Study & Strategy;MJB Consulting Group BIt A+ ny sar there`ook�n960e!36, c�vv�nds�••. StrO�� �Gu� re S,g�s that we a are facing two yak 4aace nn2 Real Estate News Agents Brokerages MLSjAssn Tech Industry By the Numbers Consumer BY THE NUMBERS Sellers outnumber buyers by largest margin in over a decade There were 46.3% more homesellers than buyers in the L.S. housing market in February, according to Redfin data — the largest gap since at least 2013. 0 Dave Gallagher March 23, 2026 Q 3 mins MI % in f W (P �nutterstock "Because this data is seasonally adjusted, the record gap tells us this isn't just a seasonal pattern — it reflects a deeper pullback in buyer demand driven by hiah costs and economic uncertaintv." New York housing inventory reaches lowest level on record in February NEW YORK STATE HOUSING MARKET DATA 2026 5,867 Closed 55ales v `3.9Y 2025 6,103 - 2026 6,169 Pending5ales v -8.0x 202S 6,709 _ New Listings 2026 7,673 v-10.8% 2025 2024 2025 2026 M IC. corn —d d year— year mLAg k wog u*w n the uam of hew *oi The data mkide 10 homes. condorm.nn and —AM wo&4-* homes ,&W& '06%v n Y sar New York State Auonation of REALTORS', Irw- r1,11,r►=I11 n Real Estate Agents Brokerages MLSIAssn Tech Industry By the Numbers Consumer BY THE NUMBERS Mortgage rates hit 2026 high as peak homebuying season begins Concerns about inflation and the wider U.S. economy are driving up mortgage rates as the housing market embarks on what is typically its busiest time of year. 0 Dave Gallagher March 19. 2626 G 4 rnms a Xi in f W cP lg�1s nysar Shut:erstocx Key points: • The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage rose to 6.22% this week, according to Freddie Mac. But daily surveys show more volatility, with Mortgage News Daily pegging the March 19 rate at 6.43%. • Rate fluctuations and persisting economic uncertainty "could once again sideline both buyers and sellers" as the spring homebuying season begins, warned Realtor.com Senior Economist Anthony Smith. "Zooming out, the spring housing market could face headwinds as broader economic uncertainties, ranging from the conflict in the Middle East and inflation to shifting tariff policies, threaten to keep mortgage rates and construction costs elevated." 62 Real Estate News Agents Brokerages MLSlAssn Tech Industry By the Numbers Consumer BV THE NUMBERS Housing market conditions `fragile' as pending sales lag The year -over -year decline suggests factors like economic uncertainty, affordability may "further tighten the market just as the buying season hits its stride." faDave Gallagher March 17, 2026 C 3 mans 0 X in f W 60 Shutterstock BR ;A, nysar Headed to Economic Recession? • Geopolitics and oil 0 Near Pecord Mock Market Wealth but overvalued? 0 blear iRecord Housing Wealth (appears on solid ground) Job Gains were weakening Consurners not happy • Consunners are defaulting on loans NATIONAL 113 ASSOCIATION OF REAI.TORS" 1000 WE e WE 2©0 x 92,000 Net Job Losses in February ... circling near zero in recent months In thousands Jan-21 Jan-22 Jan-23 -2Q0 Source: BLS Jan-24 Jan-25 0 1 IJa@n-16 113 NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF itEALT©RS` 4.0 3.5 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 Auto Loan 90+ Days Delinquency 2003 2004 200S 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 20112012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 20212022 2023 2024 202S 2026 01 01 01 01 01 Q1 01 01 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 01 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 01 01 01 Source; Federal Reserve Bark of NY NATIONAL 113 ,ASSOCIATION OF RI_ALTORS Credit Card 90+ Days Delinquency 12.0 10.0 8.0 6.0 4.0 2.0 0.0 ti 1 ti ti ti 1 ti ti ti ti ti ti ti ti ti ti 1 ti ti ti ti ti ti o- 4 o- o- o- o- o- o- o- o- o- o- a o- c�- c�- o- o- o- o- o- o- c�- o- d'� �d �o Source: Federal Reserve Bank of NY NATIONAL 113 ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS' Student Debt SCE+ Days Delinquency owl 16.0 14.0 12.0 ,► ,►. 10.0 8.0 ' 0, 4.0 2.0 0.0 2003 Q1 2006 Q1 2009 Q1 2012 Q1 2015 Q1 2018 Q1 2021 Q1 2024 Q1 Source: Federal Reserve Bank of IVY NATIONAL 0] ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS 5-year Home Price Gains Since Pre-COVID %© change from 2020 Q1 to 2025 Q4 7SA% 61.6% y S73% 61.7,. 63.7% Sux 60,1 S9 2% 57.7% e ` 71.714 61.9X 71.7w 49.9 S93% 4S.7% Source: NAR Analysis of FHFA data 1 tg% DC DE VA UL kE r.. Puwto Rica G.S% NATIONAL 113 ASSOCIATION OF R€ALTORS ` LA 0 c r) n Jan-00 Jan-01 LA Jan-02 ` Jan-03 Jan-04 CD Jan -OS Jan-05 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-1G Jan-17 Jan-18 Jan-19 Jan-20 Jan-21 Jan-22 ® Jan-23 m tA n Jan-24 .0 n Jan-25 > Jan-26 z 0 In Q C7 rD x C �3 CL 3 rt 250 This year, 1st Q new listings are 187.5 steady from last year's modest 125 recovery, still well below pandemic 62.5 induced increases. Tompkins County New Residential Listings 212 2021 -01 2022 - Q1 2024 - 01 2025 - Q1 2026 - Q1 Source: Ithaca Board of REALTORS(@ MLS; quarter ended 3/31; single family/condo/townhome; Tompkins County; excluding lakefront; 1stQ nysar ITNACA OOAF P ��� OF FEALTOAS 2026 as of 03/30/20265. New York R.. 1—d.Li-nP REb ..' rc. First signs of Buyer caution are emerging as homes are now taking much longer to sell. Median Days - List to Contract KNI 2022 - Q1 2023 - Q1 2024 - Q1 2025 - Q1 2026 - Q1 Source: Ithaca Board of REALTORS,& MLS; quarter ended 3/31; single IBR *",& family/condo/townhome; Tompkins County; excluding lakefront T`AApG fw+► �'� OF REALFORS New Work State As cation n( REAt.TORS`. Inc. Absorption Rates have grown to a g more historically balanced level of 3 - 6 months. Estimated Months of Inventory by Price Point Based on Q1 2026 It Pace 1 2 9 4F / y ^' µ" ^'.,�� ,,�'7 �c5• ryOV per- Qi�` ,� � ' � %' � o "`°� ,�� �' �°°y g°' taA '�'� ,y�* •y� ry� ry0� �ry`a �pd� ,Qyr ry�� �4a� '� Gfl9� q��r O�� � � C7� ti y_ Source: NYS Alliance MLS -Ithaca Sub Board -Single Family Residential - 1stQ 2026 Bi ��� �YW.,,. n y s a r Through 1st Quarter, homes between $400 - $600K are selling at or slightly above list price. While homes at other price points are largely selling below list price. 21•, - 0 �.- Sales, Number of Close Price to fan garal Price Ratio 115.0% 00% 5 0'i 0 a% a 0% 9 0°r . 0% 0% Time frame is from ]an 2026 to Mar 2026 Property Type is one of 'Single Family Residential', 'Condo And Townhouse' County Or Parish is 'Tompkins' On Waterfront YN is no 1 .. Source: Ithaca Board of REALTORS@ MLS; quarter ended 3/31; single I 0 family/condOr REAUORS o/townhome; Tompkins County; excluding lakefront 1 CAR�,��► nysar t� New Yark Seale Assnclaeion of REp1TORS•, Inc. Economic pressures on local households seem to be Energy Costs Taxes Inflation Healthcare sidelining many buyers. ent rates for the nation and selected areas Unem 1° n' U,,,P1¢ylrnent r3teS 9 3.8 United States 4.1 4.2 New York State Ithaca area Mortgage rate increases Ithaca city Job market instability 0.0 4.4 3:6 jY (� x. ['jV1E "i. Q �f ine ren—Nonvm6: ^lnr�art .r+nlrvn: SP. nba— Goremmen— Fconwry P:WIk f.ktr % [duatbn 1 avwur+cemen— i.Pp Ur v :MMTompkins County living wage increases to $25.08, study shows :: 'I :nn l,k [' kYiry l:i n , �. qe 1—t n x dI :: i::r.,e hu[ e_xjuats waned ujY.n�p ii I. � nj lirirNj is Wwn3imy. I•�i �: a:Yca Po[[cr al:rd p, 1016 '11itY bi IUEyyS PEBR04RY 24, 2a26 major retL ill NYSEGsab©Idse�t�Y5Lz— *�J 01 seeks 4.0 6;0 2.0 14 * Dec-25 out 24%ar�dg s 3a'soao,g, M Dec I B R +•* n J a r s-urce: u.S. 13.S, Local rWinemploYmentStatistics. ident�+ See rvpertY tax increases In —VAL.. ornmon �ouneii passes city budget e 202�6 as C New York #case As Iatw d RMTOR5•, Irx. We continue to experience an acute housing need,, 78% shy of For Sale SF homes; 97% shy of Condo goal 2024 Housing Snapshot Highlights Units Constructed vs. Target Units Goal k :S d 3000 2750 2500 22s0 loco I7so 1500 MID 1000 25 0 Sao zso 0 ror sale Sir& For Sale Rewtal Subskilxed Market Rate PSH SRO ramlly Cundos Homes WMklwce Haueing • Huusink S Gwl 2016 - Ion 9Wa BOB 2Ld1 1 Unmet Target Remaining ■ Target Units Constructed Progress 70N w6 7a5 OW 2017 Housing Strategy Goal Remaining; 2354 780 1245 (ip) Department cif Planning & Sustainability senlm. Hwsing supporll. I o-ng IN IOQ 100 68 113 109 4 32 r NP n, fillaef.lt at Enrdlmerv[ 1016 W1rh %4w B.ds IaM 25kI 00 2w 2024 Housing Snapshot Presentation V1,B onysar *": New York $1,.W AuocWl- of RFALTORS-, Irc. Demographic Trends Age Cohorts as Proportion of Total Population, Tompkins County, 2013 to 2023 • TC population stable from 2018 to 2023 100,E Number of households increased while average 90% 161016 household size decreased = need for more homes 27.59"a 70% 26.3% 05+years old population increased significantly 60% 11.2% soy:, 10s% from 2013 to 2023 (+4.8%) 40% . 40.9% of population < 30 years old in 2023 (-3.3% 309-b 20% from 2013) 10% • Median household incomes increased, 0 2013 2423 unemployment low compared to NYS average ■Unde,18 018to29 +30W39 40to64 65 and above c°GnN Department of r I. Frannie € +. g 2024 Housing Snapshot Presentation Sustalnability VIB n sar 01 New York State Ai iatlm of REALTORS•, IfK. Housing affordable to our workforce (up to 120% AMI) remains a critical need, particularly for sale housing. Tracking Housing Targets Workforce Housing - For Sale 3,800 new ownership units through 2025 3,000 single-famity homes through 2025 900 units between $150,000 - $199,999 2,100 units at $200,000+ 800 condominiums through 2025 350 units between $150,000 - $199,999 450 units at $200,000+ 003% EghoMwd 666 new single-family homes (some may be rentals) and condominiums were built 646 nOW single-family homes were 'built 20 condominiums were created Sale price generally over $300,000 'White $200,000 was a meaningful target price in 2017, in 2024 it equated to $256,730.50 (adjusted for inflation) Uti Department of Planning& 11/25/2025 2024Housing snav, Srastainability J� to IBIS ITHACA BOARD OF REALTORS whir ar New York State AT Iatim of REALTORS-, Im. Housing affordable to our workforce (up to 120% AMI) remains a critical need. Tracking Dousing Targets Workforce Housing- Rental 2,000 new rental units affordable forth ose earning up to 100% of area median income (AM]), through 2025 37.81% &Qhhwad 755 new income -restricted rental units were created, excluding supportive and senior affordable rentals which are covered in next slide Note: The 2017 Housing Strategy did not create targets for market -rate apartments Department of r Planning & ,;�25+t025 2024 Housing Snapshot Presentation . ' Sustainability Source: 2024 Tompkins County Housing Snapshot ►77.. IBR aCA BOARD Or RE-TTORs whir sar New York $Wte Aiwoa im of REALTORS-, Irc. Tracking Housing Targets Senior Housing N@SMEYW 100-200 subsidized senior apartments to meet 68 subsidized senior housing units were built 2016 deficit At least one Medicaid .Assisted Living Program None (NYS program has not been active) facility Market -rate senior housing units with services and 113 market -rate senior housing units have been congregate care facilities to be determined based added in 2 projects that were age restricted when on future vacancies and wait fists built* Department of �` I4 Planning +1r25+2025 2C241iou5ingSnapshot ('resentation ' SUstainabillty Source: 2024 Tompkins County Housing Snapshot While TC population growth is strongest in adults 65+, housing needed to best serve this demographic is falling short of demand. IBR aCA BOARD Or RE --TORS :A; r�y�sar New York State AT Iatim of REALTORS-, Im. When housing is created, it is predominantly built in the Urban Core where Infrastructure and proximity to work and services are strongest. Tracking Housing Targets Development Focus press —� o Department of .1 Planning & Sustainability Development Focus Areas (DFA) • From 2016 - 2024, -61% of all new housing was constructed in a DFA, with the largest proportion built in the Urban Center ,"25; _, Source: 2024 Tompkins County Housing Snapshot 350 50-100 30 2024 Housing SnapshotPresentaton 266 2,398 32 253 ■ 3 LJ 29 I 1; A ti i�A�ARD �� n sar o REAtoRg iA1 J New York $L.te Auo wl- or REACTORS-, Inc. sawou Alluael Zq 6ulseuoand saoIsanu! leuollnl!lsul aol polaad 6ull!em Aep-SZ luauadolanap leIuaa auaoou!-paxlua aol pun3 ueol 6uln10nab �-,; r•- Y"`�— aouelslsse lu@wAcd umop ao� 6ulpunj nnau u! WWOS$ Iuauaanoiduai ainjonaisealui ao� punk. 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F �N v\s\°ns 'to C e � � °r E e s \on �° a\\O\000 N g v dei \0 \ng ev\sed I- at�ona\ \�v R e ,emu\�\' gements ,VCancv We all play an essential role in creating, nurturing and sustaining our community as a welcoming, economically diverse place, with quality, affordable housing. Let's work together towards progress in 2026, AAO Thank you! Legislative Luncheon April 10 2026